It’s not a big threat, but enough to mention it. As another reinforcing cold front is being pushed into the Southeast on a NW flow aloft… and running into the typical hazy, hot, and humid you find in the Southeast US during the month of August… we have a boundary, a clash, and the threat for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. The bast chance will be along the 85 corridor from Atlanta, right through our backyard in the Upstate of South Carolina, up to the Charlotte area with a SLIGHT risk in the Carolinas. Marginal risks from Atlanta westbound along I-20 into Mississippi and north on 85 into the Raleigh/Durham area. Straight line winds are the biggest threat, some large hail possible, and an isolated quick spin up tornado or two are not out of the question. Not widespread, but a day you want to have your weather apps ON and be aware what’s going on.
Across the Northeast and Great Lakes, upper air low pressure is overhead and driving diurnal showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours with daytime heating. Temperatures will be just a few ticks below normal, but not by much. Rainfall will be isolated to scattered. If you see it, it will be in and out quickly. Not a washout.
West of the Mississippi the heat continues from Arkansas and Louisiana, through Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas with 100+ temperatures most likely in these states. Yes it continues to be hot here, a much hotter summer than recent years, but still falling short of the legendary summers of 1980 and 1988. And they have had some rain and some breaks in the heat recently. Not big, but 94 is better than 106 anytime!
Out in the Desert Southwest the monsoons continue to rage. It has been a markedly above normal season for the monsoons so far with lots of flooding across the Four Corners into Tucson, Phoenix and Las Vegas. Even up into Utah and Colorado the flooding has been above normal. This monsoon pattern will gradually ease this week as the heat from California to Washington State begins to take over and head back towards the intermountain west later this week.
The tropics remain DEAD QUIET. There have been a few systems that pop up in the 10-30% chance for development from the NHC, but nothing has gotten to a “potential” tropical cyclone, or an actual tropical depression in two months now. Each day and each week this continues, it stands out as an increasing quiet year in a year where it was expected to be “off the rails” busy. We are coming up on the 30th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew’s devastating march through south Florida as a CATEGORY 5, just missing downtown Miami by miles in 1992, but laying waste to the southern suburbs, particularly Homestead, Florida. Expect to hear more about this in the next 5-10 days. Andrew is a reminder that in a light tropical season, a memorable devastating storm can come. All it takes is one. It can be super busy but if they recurve and just bother the fish, it’s not as bad for us in the USA. Just remember, all it takes is one storm. Just one. On September 10, the peak of the Hurricane Season, we could have a CAT 4 bearing down on a major metro on the US coast. As quiet as it is right now, never let your guard down. Be ready.
Have a great week! It’s the first day of school in South Carolina for us so ENJOY! While we look in envy at Upstate NY off until September 6-8, we make up for it in June. It is what it is.