It’s August 1 and we are square in the middle of summer. While folks in the Southeast are preparing to send their kids back to school in the next 1-2 weeks, the temperatures will not begin to “fall” significantly anytime soon.

Before you buy into the notion we are all going to fry and we are all going to die, stop. It’s summer. It’s August. It’s hot. Just move on. Now back to the details…

Heat advisories over a lot of the central and northwestern US along with red flag warnings for fire weather hazard conditions. Temperatures west of the Mississippi will generally run from the mid 90s to mid 100s for most areas. It will actually be hotter in interior Idaho and Washington than in Las Vegas or Phoenix. Speaking of the Desert Southwest, it has been a healthy monsoon season so far. The rainfall amounts have been generous. Flash flooding has been impressive. This pattern and trend looks to continue for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile east of the Mississippi it will remain warm to hot with mid 80s to mid 90s dominating from the Northeast to the Southeast. It will get hotter and more humid later this week, especially in the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and the Northeast. Not record breaking, but above normal for sure. As for severe weather threats, there is an MCS as of this writing rolling through Illinois and Indiana (as of 845 AM 8/1) heading for the Ohio Valley. Louisville and Cincinnati, then Lexington and the rest of Kentucky, into West Virginia and areas pounded with rain last week, HEADS UP, more may be on the way along with damaging straight line winds.

The long term pattern speaks for itself. It’s a hot pattern, but not all time hot, for the central and eastern US. You have to get consistently 100+ at this time of year, even near Canada, to break records. mid 80s to mid 90s with a few days near 100 yes, a few records yes, but this isn’t the Pacific NW last year or London a few weeks ago. The monsoon continues to go good across the Desert Southwest. This will not end the drought by any stretch of the imagination but ANY water by any means into the Southwest is a good thing. That’s all I’ve got to say about that. This pattern is locked in for the first two weeks of August. Get out and enjoy it, but be smart as always.

One final note… there has been NO tropical activity in the Gulf, Caribbean, or the Atlantic. It has been unusually quiet and the tropical silence in August will start to become deafening with each passing week. I have no clue why this “way above average” tropical season has been a “dud” since mid June, but I don’t care… we’ll take it! Any time we don’t have to be “watching” for tropical storms and hurricanes to come crash down the coast is a good thing. I’m just saying, when it does switch “on”, the tropics, LOOKOUT. It’s in scenarios like this that the one storm comes along that… I’m not saying it will… but I’m just saying… until we get deep into October with the leaves falling across the country… don’t forget the tropics still exist. In 5-10 days it can go from quiet to emergencies up and down the coast. Enjoy the quiet for now.

Rich